Policy Research

The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Hugo Valin

Summary

The article compares a variety of resent estimates on how the demand for food will shift worldwide by the year 2050. Overall the average demand for calories worldwide is expected to increase by roughly 74%. The lowest estimate of this has a 50 % increase. The study also estimates a shift towards more crop related food and less animal due to increased populations. The study also estimates that change in per-capita demand for food could decrease between 1.5-3% due to climate change. The study also estimates the high-income OECD countries will face small if any decreases in per capita demand for caloric consumption; however developing countries will vary tremendously. This effect is amplified when specifically applied to livestock. The projections further estimate a world population of roughly 9.3 billion and a doubling of average income per capita. This study did not include crops used to feed livestock into demand modeling.

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Policy Implications

This article can be used in attempting to create agricultural policy that will be able to withstand oncoming increases to crop demand. With an average increased demand for food of 74% ranging as high as 98%, increased efforts into agricultural efficiency and foundations will be necessary. These estimates can be further used in attempting to explore other effects of climate change and increased population on the world economy in the future.