Policy Research

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S. Bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census

Raphael Nawrotzki

Summary

The article attempts to estimate the relationship between changes in precipitation in Mexico and levels of immigration to the United States. The study compares precipitation records and census data and estimates that there is a significant relationship between precipitation and migration to the U.S. This study estimates that as rainfall decreases migration increases. This relationship is present in towns that are rural and in drier regions of Mexico. No significant effect was found for large cities and wetter climates. The article noted that regions with less access to irrigation and loss-offsetting capital were more likely to see this effect. The study also suggested that the entirety of the time period being studied was drier than usual so the effects of changes in rain could be even greater than estimated.

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Policy Implications

This article can be used as a possible factor into policies designed to decrease Mexican immigration in the United States, or other countries with borders of contrasting economic situations. The study suggests that policies that increase rural Mexican areas ability to withstand varying weather patterns could see significant drops in migration rates. Possible suggestions include introduction of weather resistant crops and planting techniques, introduction of weather based crop insurance, investments in irrigation systems, etc. Especially as the world climate potentially shifts towards aridity efforts may need to be concentrated if immigration is of concern.