MSU Poll Shows Benson with large lead while El-Sayed/ Roger race tight

.Anti-Muslim attitudes may be playing an important role in the Senate race. 

East Lansing, Mich., October 26, 2026 – The Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) at Michigan State University released its new State of the State Survey today, showing Jocelyn Benson now leads John James 53.3% to 40.9% among likely voters in the race for governor. The Senate contest is much tighter, with Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers 48% to 45.5%. The August version of the survey had Benson up 9 percentage points on James and El-Sayed up 5.5 percentage points on Rogers. 

The new survey shows more splits between Benson and El-Sayed. Benson now outperforms El-Sayed, especially among independents, Wayne County residents, Catholics, Black voters, and ideological moderates. Voters under 30 are the exception: El-Sayed runs ahead of Benson among them.  

"The gap between the governor and Senate races has grown, with centrist voters more likely to support Benson than El-Sayed," said Dr. Matt Grossmann, Director of IPPSR. 

However, Islamophobia may also be a factor in the Senate race. About 38% of voters say a Muslim candidate would make them less likely to offer support. Those voters are much less likely to support El-Sayed, as are voters who rate Muslims negatively when asked their feelings toward the group.

Trump's unpopularity is a headwind for Republicans. Only 35% of voters rate his performance as excellent or good, and 52% say a Trump endorsement makes them less likely to support a candidate.

YouGov conducted interviews for the Office for Survey Research (OSR) and IPPSR between October 2–19, 2026. Each wave included 1,000 interviews; respondents were matched to a sampling frame of Michigan adults drawn from the 2023 American Community Survey, weighted by propensity score, and then post-stratified on 2024 presidential vote, gender, age, race, and education.

Full topline results of related questions are available here. For more information about the State of the State Survey and for past results, please click here.

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