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Contacts: Brian Silver, (517) 355-2237, bsilver@msu.edu;
AnnMarie Schneider: (517) 353-1738, annmarie@msu.edu
September 12, 2006
Michigan residents decide to evacuate or stay, depends
on who gives order
EAST LANSING, Mich. -- Michigan residents report they are less
likely to follow emergency evacuation orders if the order is issued
by a governmental official or agency.
Michigan State University doctoral candidate Paul Burton and professor
of political science, Brian Silver, recognize the contradiction
confronting public officials planning for an emergency evacuation,
a proven life-saving measure when a natural or man-made disaster
is anticipated or occurs. While the general public is holding government
officials responsible for a plan, they are also demonstrating a
lack of confidence or trust in government. The situation is more
complicated by the fact that only an official may issue an emergency
evacuation.
“This is a surprising and paradoxical result,” said
Professor Silver. “Only the government can issue an order,
but people do not trust the government.”
The study, recently presented at the American Political Science
Association in Philadelphia, indicates an evacuation order is more
likely to be followed if it is without a government affiliation
and is presented with reference to a successful evacuation effort.
The study also found that in general, women are more likely to
respond than men, as are African Americans, people with disabilities,
and those living in the city.
Survey participants were given a hypothetical mandatory evacuation
order, and then asked if they would follow that order. Some were
reminded of Hurricane Katrina, some reminded of Hurricane Rita,
and some were given no storm prompt at all. In addition, some were
simply told that an evacuation order was being issued with no reference
to a source or storm evacuation. Others were alternately told that
the order was from either “local government officials,”
“the governor,” or “FEMA.”
About 24 percent say they would consider the warning, while seven
percent said an evacuation would be unlikely.
Overall, about 69 percent of Michigan residents would be “very
likely” to evacuate if a mandatory order were given.
Those given references to Hurricane Katrina or Rita were more likely
to evacuate than those receiving no reminders of a previous evacuation.
The reference to “Rita” stimulated a higher compliance
with the order (70%) than the reference to “Katrina”
(60%). Silver says this may be due to a more positive end result
to the Rita evacuation, even though most evacuees found the evacuation
unnecessary in hindsight.
When the order was said to come from any governmental entity, people
were less likely to evacuate than if no government offices were
mentioned.
The compliance rate rocketed to 79 percent when the order was given
with no reference to government. This positive response declined
when a local official was mentioned (71%); when a state official
(governor) was mentioned (62%), and when FEMA was mentioned (64%).
Those that would hesitate or refuse to comply gave three major reasons
for noncompliance;
- Over 40 percent of the survey respondents said that they wanted
to decide for themselves what to do in such an emergency, not
be told what to do.
- Another 15 percent expressed a distrust or dislike for government.
- More than 25 percent declined because of concern for their
property or belongings. This may be seen as a lack of trust or
inability for law enforcement to prevent looting and destruction.
Together, these three responses, totaling 80 percent, all involve
people’s unwillingness to rely on government authority.
Of the remaining responses, the reason of “no transportation”
was the most frequent (15%) for not evacuating. Other scarcely mentioned
reasons include old age, physical impairment, or concern for pets.
Notably, less than one percent stated that such a disaster “could
never occur here.” In other words, they accepted the premise
that a disaster could occur in the area where they live.
Silver says public officials can issue more effective warnings
and evacuation orders based on this information.
“Public education of the emergency evacuation plan, why and
how it is activated, can help citizens to consider evacuation as
the safest strategy should a disaster occur.”
The Michigan State University study was completed by the Institute
for Public Policy and Social Research as part of the State of the
State Survey (SOSS), a statewide random digit-dialing telephone
survey conducted in Michigan between October 28 and December 13,
2005. Over 1,000 interviews were completed, the average interview
lasting about 21 minutes. The sampling error is 3 percent. The overall
completion rate was 44 percent and the refusal rate was 20 percent.
More Information:
Study
report abstract (pdf file)
Complete
Paper (pdf file)
PowerPoint
Presentation (pdf file)
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IPPSR is the nonpartisan public policy network at
MSU. Housed within the College of Social Science, the institute
is dedicated to connecting legislators, scholars and practitioners
through survey, evaluation and applied research, policy forums and
political leadership instruction.
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